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Publication Type
Journal Article
Author, Analytic
Amarakoon, Dharmaratne M; Chen, Abraham A.; Rawlins, Samuel; Chadee, Dave; Taylor, Michael A.; Stennett, Roxanne
Author Affiliation, Ana.
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Article Title
Dengue epidemics in the Caribbean-temperature indices to gauge the potential for onset of dengue.
Medium Designator
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Connective Phrase
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Journal Title
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Translated Title
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Reprint Status
Refereed
Date of Publication
2008
Volume ID
13
Issue ID
4
Page(s)
341-357
Language
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Connective Phrase
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Location/URL
http:; link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11027-007-9114-5.pdf
ISSN
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Notes
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Abstract
The seasonality, patterns and the climate associations of the reported cases of dengue in the Caribbean were studied by analyzing the annual and monthly variability of reported cases as well as those of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation). More attention was given to Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and Jamaica, as those countries contributed mostly to the reported cases. The data were for the period 1980–2003. Results showed that the incidence of dengue in the Caribbean were higher in the last decade (1990s) compared to that in the previous decade (1980s). The yearly patterns of dengue exhibited a well-defined seasonality. The epidemics appeared to occur in the later half of the year following onset of rainfall and increasing temperature. Analysis revealed that the association of the epidemics with temperature was stronger, especially in relation to the onset of dengue, and the probability of epidemics was high during El Niño periods. In years with early warmer periods epidemics appeared to occur early, which was a scenario more probable in the year after an El Niño (an El Niño + 1 year). Indices linked to temperatures that are useful for gauging the potential for onset of dengue were examined. An index based on a moving average temperature (MAT) appeared to be effective in gauging such potential and its average (AMAT) signals a threshold effect. MAT index has potential use in adaptation and mitigation strategies.....
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